Fair odds accurately reflect how likely a bet is to win.
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This percentage will have the bookmaker’s profit margin built into it, and that’s okay. A true value bet gives you an edge over the house, even with their profit margin. Let’s say that the true probability of that team winning is 60%. In this case, the event is considered both likelier to occur, but it’s also a value bet. If you place a bet on it and win you can expect higher winnings.
Value betting is best understood in practice. Let’s say that the bookmaker has 1.8 odds for a team winning. To calculate the probability from those odds, use this calculation:
One way to identify value betting opportunities is through .
Bookmakers use very, very complex algorithms to calculate their odds, and for the most part, you won’t have the times or the means to do those calculations yourself. That’s why it’s a great idea to combine odds comparison in your value betting strategy. Shop around for the various odds, and then take the best odds to use as the true probability, or go to a trusted sharp bookmaker (one with very low profit margins) to compare. You can use those odds to calculate the true probability.
You’re probably accustomed to thinking of bets as either value or bluff. In this taxonomy, value bets are hands whose value comes from getting called, and bluffs are those whose value comes from getting folds. There are also semi-bluffs, hands that bet to make better hands fold but also have a substantial chance of improving to a winning hand. And there are thin value or protection bets, modest made hands that do reasonably well when called and also benefit from causing live equity to fold.
Now that you have the true probability, it’s time to work out the expected value of your bet. You’ll want to do this on bets that are already higher than their competitors, so that you can see just how much value you can expect out of betting on one site over the other. To calculate the expected value, use this equation:
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Value betting strategies can be derailed by:
Probability is the likelihood of an event happening - displayed as a percentage. Betting involves assessing the probability of that event happening - from 0% (impossible) to 100% (certain). Bookmakers and exchange traders then measure that probability and translate it into odds.
can provide a market-neutral approach to value betting.
In this case, you’d multiply the true probability you worked out from the competitor by the odds on the bookmaker you want to use. Then remove 1 from that equation. A value bet is one that has a higher profit percentage than what you can expect when using the sharp odds.
The Discipline of Value Betting: Patience Pays
Thankfully, you don’t need to manually make these calculations yourself. There are many different options out there, from online value betting calculators, to free and paid value betting software that automatically fetches the information, calculates it, and provides you with the best value bets available.
Value betting inherently involves uncertainty:
There are instances wherecan actually boost the odds in your favour (aka, a value bet). Value betting is traditionally done on single bets, since this is the best way to find those when odds are lower than they should be. Accumulator bets naturally increase in odds, which can be seen as a value bet, except that with every selection you add, the odds of each selection occurring drops considerably. You won’t want to make large accumulator bets, of course, but a double or triple bet boost can increase potential winnings.
is important in value betting:
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Successful value betting requires:
After BB checks their entire range, the BTN mostly chooses between a large bet or a check. For our purposes, we’ll look exclusively at the 125% pot bet, which is the most commonly used option. As is usually the case with a large bet size, the BTN employs a fairly polar betting range, preferring to bet mostly very strong and very weak hands and check many medium-strength hands.
